Explainer: How Early Voting Works

Matt Dailer:

If you can bank votes early, it'll save you money down the stretch during geo t v, so you don't have to send those people mailed to remind them to turn out an election day. You don't have to text them, you don't have to call them.

Eric Wilson:

I'm Eric Wilson, managing Partner of Startup Caucus, the home of campaign tech innovation on the right. Welcome to the Business of Politics Show. On this podcast, you are joining in on a conversation with entrepreneurs, operatives, and experts who make professional politics happen. Today we're digging into a topic that's on everyone's mind after the 2022 midterm elections, and that's the mechanics of absentee and early voting, which for shorthand most people refer to as A B E V. And we'll do so for the rest of the show to help us understand all of the ins and outs. As someone who has a lot of experience with Get out the Vote Operations, Matt Dayler was most recently campaign manager for Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, who recently won reelection by 13 Points. He was previously Deputy Political Director at the Republican National Committee and Executive Director of the West Virginia, g o p. Matt, before we dig in, every state is different when it comes to vote by mail and early voting. So give us the broad overview of the major variations that we see across the country.

Matt Dailer:

Yeah, so the terminology is different. Every state, and you might say early vote, but that might mean in person or it might be by mail. So it's very important to pay attention to every state's law. But basically to break it down, there are only four states that don't offer some type of early voting, which is Alabama, Connecticut, Mississippi, and New Hampshire. So every other state and territory offers some type of early voting

Eric Wilson:

Operations. So in those states, you have to physically be present on election day,

Matt Dailer:

Physically vote on election day.

Eric Wilson:

So let's go to the other spectrum, which are the states that are only mail-in voting, which is basically all early

Matt Dailer:

Vote, right? So there are states that conduct their elections totally by mail, and they do that very effectively and people are used to that. They think it's weird when people don't vote like that, right? Yeah. But you have states that,

Eric Wilson:

So like those are states that you can't actually even show up anywhere on

Matt Dailer:

Election vote. Correct. Yeah. Okay. That's vote by mail. Montana being, I believe the less example of that

Eric Wilson:

Perhaps Washington State I think is

Matt Dailer:

There. So in 46 states they, they run some type of early vote program and that goes from no excuse. So if you're a registered voter, you can go early, vote by mail or in person. Then there's some states that run an excuse program where you need an excuse to why you can't be there on election day, such as you're way at college, you're way for business, you're overseas, some things like that. Again, it varies from state to state and how they determine how to

Eric Wilson:

Do it. Got it. So seems like there are a bunch of different levers that states can pull. It's, you know, either no early voting, some early voting, or all vote by mail and then excuses and then like the windows of how early can you begin? Yep. How early can you request? And then, you know, some states have like an early voting in-person component as

Matt Dailer:

Well. Yep. Okay. Exactly. And I mean like an Iowa, they call it absentee in person, right? So you get an absentee, but you turn it in in person. <Laugh>. Right? So again, it varies so much from state to state and it's just, there's no one way to look

Eric Wilson:

At it. And so, you know, one of the pieces of advice when you give to entrepreneurs, you know, who are working with campaigns is understand what's going on in, in a particular state to determine where they come from. But let's address what is the advantage to a campaign of having a really good a b e EV program?

Matt Dailer:

Yeah, well, saves you money if you can bank votes early, it'll save you money down the stretch during go t v would you consider like the last week of the election. So you don't have to send those people mailed to remind them to turn on election day. You don't have to text them, you don't have to call them. It, it just, and then it saves you and saves you. And then through early voting, it's great for the campaign. This is what I love about early voting is the data Yeah. That you get back, right? So you can see, you can see trends in the early vote, right? So if you see a bunch of newly registered Democrats and low propensity Democrats voting early, you have a problem problem

Eric Wilson:

On your hands.

Matt Dailer:

Yeah. Right? Because they are turning out people who usually do not vote and they're doing it early. So you would have probably a a, you have, you have a bigger thing to tackle on election day.

Eric Wilson:

The smart campaigns nowadays, we don't even talk about election day, we talk about election month because you're getting this opportunity to bank your votes early, prioritize resources, and kind of triage your campaign in a lot of ways. You mentioned what we call the chase of A B E V is one of the key components of doing this really effectively. Kind of walk people through what's involved in chasing ballots and and what do campaigns do in that process.

Matt Dailer:

Yeah, so I mean, chasing is kind of the fun part because before Chase you have push. When you're vote, you're pushing all of your supporters to vote early. But once chase starts, so basically once early voting starts in your state, the state, the secretary of state board of election provides you the list of everyone who's requested an absentee ballot or you have the voter file that lets you know everyone who's voted early in previous elections. So you start to chase in all of those people. So if you look at it as you have 10,000 people that you know or register republicans or you've I'D as a supporter and they've all got absentee ballots in their hands, your goal is to get that number down to zero before election day. So you banked 10,000 votes before the election even started. Right? And so campaigns, depending on the window, like we talked about, it's, so if you have 60 days then it's much easier to chase these down. But when you only have a 10, 10 day window, you have to be prepared and know what you're going to do. You can't let it sneak up on you. Right. but a lot of people, you know, you'll send mail like, Hey, you should have your ballot. You need to turn it in still. Obviously the easiest way now is peer to peer or phone call. But some sophisticated campaigns, they will know when they're going door to door that hey, there's a ballot house.

Eric Wilson:

Oh there's a ballot in that

Matt Dailer:

House. House. Yeah. So you asked for that voter and again, different rules, you probably can't touch the ballot or have anything to do with that. Yeah. But you can remind them like, Hey, you gotta turn that in. There's only eight more days to, so you can turn in

Eric Wilson:

Your ballot. Yeah. And that's another one of the areas of confusion that we see a lot is that some states are, has to be in by election day, has to be postmark by election day, you know, all that kind of thing. And that, that's led to some confusion. So on a campaign where you're getting this data stream from the Secretary of State, you, you can see, oh, well these people that we've modeled, obviously we don't know how people vote in that early vote process. Correct. Right. But we know how they've, you know, they've their primary vote history. Yep. we can model them, we can probably even have voter contact observations on them. Yep. so it, it really gives you more time to run your program. Right. And, and, and we talked about this a lot on the podcast, which is campaigns are like a, a startup with only a single day of sales thanks to A B E V, we now get to expand that too, maybe a few weeks. And so it, it lets you adjust your strategy.

Matt Dailer:

Yeah. And I'm, there's also more trends too. So if you look at the previous elections, you can just see if you're on pace for where you were. Are you outpacing where you're at? If you're underperforming not but just low propensity voters, but all voters, then you might be like, oh, we need to put more money into Chase to get more people to turn out to vote early. Cause we're falling so far behind, we'll never catch up on election day. Or if you're overperforming, you might be like, we don't need to send that third or fourth mail piece to remind people to turn in their ballot or to go vote. People are just naturally excited about the election and they want to go vote. So, I mean, early vote is a good word. Right? Right. It is a positive thing for campaigns that you want to take advantage, you wanna take advantage of everything that is available to you. And early vote is a powerful tool. It's a cost money, but it will save you money at the end cuz you're just banking votes.

Eric Wilson:

Right. And you do allude to this idea that it, it people, some people think about mail-in voting A B E V as kind of a bad word. And, and so for folks who might be coming into politics for the first time over the last couple of years, they might not realize that Republicans used to be really, really effective at early voting. And, and then in the pandemic it got expanded and there was sort of a reaction to that. What are some of the most effective messages to voters about trying to get them to turn in their, their ballots earlier, participate in that early vote? Because we do hear a lot of people say, I like the, you know, showing up on election day and getting my sticker. Yep. but obviously there are clear advantages to the campaign Yeah. By getting them to go early.

Matt Dailer:

Personally, my favorite one is if you want the phone calls, the texts in the mail to stop, go vote because then you'll be removed from all of that. Yeah. And of course it's more of an explanation than that, but of course people wanna be taken off of those lists <laugh>. So that's a good motivator. Other good ones is like, why wait to vote? Aren't you excited to vote for Chuck Raley? Just go vote now. Or why wait in the line on election day? It's so easy and it's simple, you can just request your ballot and get it over with. Mm-Hmm.

Eric Wilson:

<Affirmative> there's also the opportunity for, you know, volunteering. So if people are super enthusiastic about a candidate, you really need them to get their friends to the poll and things like that. Yep. and then I, I do think campaigns because of sort of backlash against A B E V over the last couple of years, I do think campaigns have to restore some trust in that process for voters to help them understand. And so really you're kind of shooting yourself in the foot if you as a candidate are railing against. Right. A B E V or drop boxes or whatever. And because, you know, I I think of it like you know, in <laugh> in basketball, right? Like you could really hate the three point shot and never make a three point shot still making more baskets than the other team and lose. Right. So if you, you don't get to change the rules in the middle of the, the game. Yeah.

You're listening to the Business of Politics Show. I'm speaking with Matt Dayler about the mechanics of absentee and early voting. We're calling it A B E V. Matt, we looked into some of the research around Vote by mail and one of the things that jumped out to me is that it leads to increased political discussion while people are filling out their ballots cuz they're now no longer in a voting booth, but they're at their kitchen table. And one of the studies actually said those talking to more knowledgeable people as well as those conversing with people with whom they occasionally or often disagreed, were somewhat more likely to report that the discussion shaped their ballot choices. So it gives us yet another opportunity to persuade voters. So what can campaigns do to better prepare their supporters for these kinds of conversations?

Matt Dailer:

Yeah, definitely. I mean, when you go into the ballot ballot box, you should theoretically know who's gonna be on the ballot, what you're gonna vote for, but there's always surprises like, oh, I didn't know that person was up. I didn't know for that position. So when you're having a discussion with friends or people around the kitchen table, you can ha you can approach it better and be like, oh yeah, they are. And if you're a volunteer for this campaign or you've, you know, seen ads, you're better prepared to deliver why you should support this candidate. And if it wasn't like that, that you would just maybe skip it on the ballot. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. So you wanna have an aggressive early vote program where you are having your supporters be able to talk about the ballot and know of everyone who's on it. So when it comes to situations like this, you know, what's going on. So it's kind of like voter education. Yeah.

Eric Wilson:

And I, I think there's also, I go back to kind of my digital campaigning side of the house, which is people are gonna be doing Google searches with their, their phone or their computer open while they're filling out their ballot. So, you know, what, what is your appearance on search? What are, you know, that's the importance of having search adss early. Yep. another tactic that I think is really important here is is you mentioned peer-to-peer texting, but relational organizing broadly Yeah. Of the most, you know, the campaign isn't gonna have a canvasser at that kitchen table while they're filling out the ballot, but you would have a friend or, or someone. And as we see here in this, this study, which is linked in our show notes, even if you disagree with the person, if they are persuasive or as long as they're more knowledgeable, whatever that means Yeah. It can actually persuade people. Yep.

Matt Dailer:

If you, if your volunteers or supporters are able to articulate the point of the campaign, someone who's undecided is gonna trust that way more than hearing an ad or Yeah.

Eric Wilson:

And that, that the challenge then becomes you have to have something positive for them to say. Right. It's like, oh, so-and-so's a scoundrel. Well that's not as persuasive as if, if so-and-so is elected they will do this, this, and

Matt Dailer:

That. Right. Yeah.

Eric Wilson:

So we, we kind of alluded to this earlier about the, the campaigns now have a gap to fill in in building trust in A B E V. What are some ways that you've seen folks do

Matt Dailer:

That? I mean, I think one of the really good things that's happening is a lot of states are now offering to track your ballot. Mm. And so the Secretary of State or Board of Election will notify you like, Hey, your ballot, your ballot's been mailed to you, so you should get it in the mail soon. And then you fill it out, you send it back in, then they'll notify you that they've received it and that they've accepted it so you filled everything out and that it's gonna be cast. Right. Right. So I think that's building a hu that's huge help, right.

Eric Wilson:

Standing that lever layer of transparency to it.

Matt Dailer:

Yeah, for sure. I think another thing that campaigns have to do to, to rebuild trust now is we have to talk about it a lot and not just talk about it when it starts. Like you need to start very early in the summer being like early voting starting, we want all of our supporters to go vote, vote early so that they start hearing it and start to get comfortable with it. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. And then one of the other powerful things is to have the candidate ask, right. Like, you know, it's, it's different when a volunteers calling you like, Hey, you want to request an absentee ballot and you get hung up on when they hear a candidate on the news or on the stump speech saying, an early voting starting in one month and you need to request your ballot so that you can vote early so that we can win this election. Right. I think it's very effective.

Eric Wilson:

I was thinking about the 2014 Ed Gillespie for Senate campaign that I worked on in Virginia. We made a really big deal out of A B E V because we saw that, you know, Republicans would win on election day but then get swamped at that point absentee ballots. And so Virginia is one of these. Back then you had to have an excuse. It was only, you know, you could get it by mail, but there was also absentee in person, like you described with Iowa. We did a lot of things like letting people know just how many excuses were available to them. So for example, like, you know, if you live in Northern Virginia, you commute outside of your county every single day. We even had ed go vote AB early one Saturday morning in, in Fairfax County. And the reporter said, well, why are you voting?

And he says, Michael, I'm gonna be campaigning in other places on election day that aren't Fairfax County. So I'm eligible. And so really like, called it out and you know, I I, a funny story that is one of my prouder moments from the Rubio campaign. We did a vote early day in the Florida primary back in 2016. It was like the week before. Yeah. election a and so we were doing throughout the states bunch of rallies. And so we actually set up these Snapchat filters at every polling place and we, we got this hashtag trending of like, it's vote early day. And I was really excited when I saw like Bernie Sanders supporters in North Carolina were like, oh, let's vote early day, go out and vote for Bernie's. But you really do have to push it and make it a, you can't, you can't assume that your voters know that this is something they're supposed to do.

Matt Dailer:

So having a special day during the early vote period is good. Have as many of the candidates get together, get as much media there to get as much earned media out of it. So when people are at home watching the news like, oh, I could go early vote all these people are, yeah, I guess it'd be okay. Right. Free tool right there.

Eric Wilson:

Yeah. and you see with the Democrats, they'll do like a Dave Matthews concert right next to an early voting location and things like

Matt Dailer:

That. Yeah. They are very creative and unfortunately much better at it than us. Yeah.

Eric Wilson:

What are some of the, the tech or software that campaigns are using to manage their, their ab ev programs? Obviously the states have different types of data feeds that they can tap into.

Matt Dailer:

Yeah, I mean I think it comes down to almost like personal preference. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> of how you want to view the data and use the data because I mean, it's theile versus people that are voting. Right. So you could just run it through a spreadsheet. But I mean, a lot of people and campaigns rely on the data trust cuz they do a really good job of updating the file, updating that every day, every day so that you can purge all of your lists so that you're only talking to voters. You still need to vote. Obviously,

Eric Wilson:

But then that, that you raised a important part there, which is like, you then have to communicate it to your P2P vendor, your digital vendor, your mail vendor, make sure that they, they got the memo.

Matt Dailer:

So however you're ingesting it, you wanna be able to get it out the fastest. So you wanna be able to, if you're cutting walk books, like you wanna remove all those people, the phone list, peer to peer mail, which where you save the most and digital, you just remove all those people. So I think it's the best if wherever, whatever you're operating in already, you should try to figure it out through that instead of adding in another layer. Oh, okay. Something you have to worry about during the most important part of, of

Eric Wilson:

The campaign. This was more of an organizational challenge of, of and communicating. Yep. It goes without saying that you need to have really responsive vendors and providers Yeah. In, in that case too.

Matt Dailer:

Yeah, absolutely.

Eric Wilson:

Well Matt, I wanted to say thank you for a great conversation about early voting and absentee ballot programs has been really helpful. Obviously people are really interested in it post 2022 and, and you know, we've got a lot to relearn. It, it, it seems like, cuz we we used to be really good at this. We, we sort of took a few steps back and now people are realizing that you do need early voting. So if this episode made you a little bit smarter or gave you something to think about, all we ask is that you share it with a friend or colleague and guess what? You look smarter in the process as well. Remember to subscribe to the Business of Politics Show wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also sign up for email reminders about new episodes at business of politics podcast.com. With that, I'll say thanks for listening. See you next time.

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