This study looked at why some people who say they're interested in running for office actually do it, while others don't. They found that folks who talked about specific issues or political opportunities were more likely to run than those who just expressed general interest, and interestingly, women and people of color who showed interest were more likely to follow through and run for office than white men.
"Something to Run for: Stated Motives as Indicators of Candidate Emergence," Political Behavior. John Green, Meredith Conroy & Ciera Hammond
What Is The Study About?
This study examines the gap between political ambition and actual candidacy. Researchers analyzed over 10,000 statements from individuals who expressed interest in running for state and local offices through Run for Something, a progressive organization. The primary focus was to identify what differentiates those who merely express interest in running from those who actually launch campaigns.
By scrutinizing these statements of interest, the researchers sought to pinpoint key factors that predict whether an individual will transition from contemplating a political run to officially declaring their candidacy. The study aims to provide insights into the early stages of the political pipeline and the factors that influence who ultimately runs for office.
How Did They Perform The Study?
The researchers analyzed over 10,000 intake forms submitted to Run for Something, a nonprofit that encourages young, diverse candidates to run for state and local offices. These forms, collected in 2017 and 2018, included open-ended statements where potential candidates explained their interest in running.
Using a technique called pivoted text scaling, the researchers identified key themes in these statements. They then tracked which prospective candidates actually ran for office, comparing the language used by those who ran versus those who didn't.
The study also incorporated demographic data like race, gender, and location. This approach allowed the researchers to observe patterns in the transition from political ambition to actual candidacy, providing rare insight into this process.
What Did They Find?
The study revealed that how people expressed their political ambition mattered. Those who emphasized specific policy issues or political opportunities were more likely to actually run for office than those who expressed general political interest or frustration with national politics.
Interestingly, white and male respondents were more likely to articulate their interest in general terms, which was associated with lower rates of running. Women and people of color who submitted statements were more likely to actually run for office, suggesting the bar for expressing interest might be higher for these groups.
The findings indicate that not all expressions of political ambition are equal. More specific and pragmatic motivations were associated with higher rates of candidate emergence, offering new insights into who ultimately decides to run for office.
Takeaways
- For organizations recruiting candidates, focusing on individuals who articulate specific policy goals or political opportunities might yield better results. These organizations could also develop strategies to encourage more specific, pragmatic expressions of political ambition.
- To increase diversity in political representation, increased outreach to underrepresented groups could be beneficial, as women and people of color who expressed interest were more likely to run.
- The findings suggest that measuring political ambition should go beyond simply asking if someone has considered running, and instead examine how they articulate that interest.
.png){kind=icon}