The 2026 midterms are on track to be the most expensive in U.S. history—and not by a small margin. In this episode of the Campaign Trend Podcast, Eric Wilson talks with John Link, Senior Vice President of Data at Ad Impact, to unpack what’s behind the eye-popping projections in Ad Impact’s 2025–2026 Political Projections Report.
The headline number is hard to ignore: more than $10.8 billion in political ad spending across the midterm cycle, nearly matching a recent presidential cycle and representing a $3.8 billion increase over 2022. But as Link explains, the real story isn’t just that campaigns are spending more—it’s where and how that money is entering the system.
A major driver is the Senate map. While only a handful of races dominate attention in a typical midterm, Ad Impact projects three—and potentially four—Senate contests that could each exceed $500 million in spending, a threshold previously crossed only twice in history. At the same time, House spending is expected to jump sharply, even as the total number of competitive districts shrinks. Fewer battlegrounds, in other words, but far more intense ones.
The conversation also highlights a structural shift in campaign timing. Billions of dollars are flowing into races earlier than ever before, well ahead of the traditional election calendar. According to Link, this isn’t a post-2024 overcorrection so much as a continuation of long-term trends: stronger fundraising, better targeting tools, and a growing understanding that early spending can shape the entire cycle.
Perhaps the most consequential change is in the media mix itself. Connected TV is now the fastest-growing channel in political advertising, projected to reach $2.5 billion over the cycle and gain market share even as other media plateau. With premium inventory—live sports and first-run programming—shifting toward streaming, Link argues the ceiling on CTV growth is still far from being reached.
The data paints a clear picture of the 2026 environment: more money, deployed earlier, across a more fragmented and competitive media landscape—raising the stakes for campaigns trying to break through without losing efficiency along the way.