In the wake of the 2024 election, a central question looms over the 2026 midterms: does the Trump coalition reliably show up when he’s not on the ballot? On this episode of the Campaign Trend Podcast, Eric Wilson speaks with David Kanevsky, President of 3D Strategic Research and pollster for the Center for Campaign Innovation, to unpack new post-election survey data from Virginia and New Jersey—and the answers are more complicated than conventional wisdom suggests.
One of the most striking findings is that Republican turnout wasn’t the problem many assumed it would be. In New Jersey, more registered Republicans actually voted in 2025 than in the previous off-year election. The real shift came from the other side of the ledger: Democratic turnout surged, while Republican-leaning independents stayed home. That pattern mirrors a longer-running structural challenge—midterm electorates skew older and more educated, while today’s Republican coalition is increasingly non-college and therefore less likely to turn out consistently in off-year elections.
The conversation also digs into how media consumption is reshaping campaign strategy faster than expected. Streaming has officially overtaken traditional linear TV as the dominant way voters consume video content—even in a midterm electorate. At the same time, a growing share of voters either avoid news entirely or encounter it only incidentally, through social feeds or entertainment platforms. These “news avoiders” are often the most persuadable voters, yet they’re the hardest to reach through traditional campaign channels.
Kanevsky frames the modern electorate as two distinct groups. On one side are highly engaged political hobbyists—older, more partisan, heavy news consumers whose views are largely fixed. On the other are disengaged but still participating voters: younger, more likely to stream ad-free content, and far less immersed in political media. Campaigns are extremely good at reaching the first group. Winning elections increasingly depends on figuring out the second.
The episode closes with a forward-looking challenge for 2026 campaigns: success won’t come from refining tactics inside the political bubble. It will come from breaking out of it—reaching voters in places that don’t feel political at all, with messages that match how people actually live, watch, and pay attention today.